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Monetary Quantification of Supply Risks of Manufacturing Enterprises - Discrete Event Simulation Based Approach

Philipp von Cube, Lasse Härtel, Robert Schmitt, Christophe Ponsard, Philippe Massonet, Renaud de Landtsheer, Gustavo Ospina, Stephan Printz, Sabina Jeschke, Monetary Quantification of Supply Risks of Manufacturing Enterprises - Discrete Event Simulation Based Approach, 49th CIRP Conference on Manufacturing Systems, CIRP-CMS 2016,Stuttgart, Germany, May 25-27, 2016 (accepted)

Various approaches exist to quantify risks in supply chains. However, two aspects in risk assessments are not usually considered : monetarized risk quantification and use-case dependent model complexity. Monetarily quantifying risks means quantifying root-cause and severity of each single risk and aggregating these risks into an aggregated risk value. Thereby information uncertainty, complex interrelations and dynamic influences need to be considered. Depending on a use-case’s goal information or process models need to be created at different levels of detail. This paper presents a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) approach providing all necessary features to monetarily quantify risks independent of the depth of information and thus allow adjusting the model dependent on the use-case. It provides graphical modeling language equipped with risk assessment probes enabling to capture all risk-relevant aspects. Based on this instrumented model, the framework is then able to compute and report about monetary risk quantification using an efficient DES engine driven by a Monte-Carlo procedure. Within this paper applicability of such an approach shall be assessed in use-case specific processes characterized by determined risks and parameter settings.

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